The New York Times, July 10, 2001:

Judging from news reports and the portrayal of villains in our popular entertainment, Americans are bedeviled by fantasies about terrorism. They seem to believe that terrorism is the greatest threat to the United States and that it is becoming more widespread and lethal. They are likely to think that the United States is the most popular target of terrorists. And they almost certainly have the impression that extremist Islamic groups cause most terrorism.

None of these beliefs are based in fact. While many crimes are committed against Americans abroad (as at home), politically inspired terrorism, as opposed to more ordinary criminality motivated by simple greed, is not as common as most people may think…

Nor are the United States and its policies the primary target. Terrorist activity in 2000 was heavily concentrated in just two countries — Colombia, which had 186 incidents, and India, with 63. The cause was these countries’ own political conflicts…

The greatest risk is clear: if you are drilling for oil in Colombia — or in nations like Ecuador, Nigeria or Indonesia — you should take appropriate precautions; otherwise Americans have little to fear.

1 month and 1 day later, as we know, the worst terrorist attack in history would be carried out by Islamic extremists killing thousands. None of those citizens were killed for drilling oil in Columbia. They were murdered because they were Americans.

Now we have this from Reason.

Ever since Sept. 11, 2001, Americans have had to live with the knowledge that the next time the terroristis strike, it could be not with airplanes capable of killing thousands but atomic bombs capable of killing hundreds of thousands.

The prospect has created a sense of profound vulnerability. It has shaped our view of government policies aimed at combating terrorism (filtered through Jack Bauer). It helped mobilize support for the Iraq war…

But remember: After Sept. 11, 2001, we all thought more attacks were a certainty. Yet Al Qaeda and its ideological kin have proved unable to mount a second strike.

Don’t get me wrong, I hope this guy is dead on and we don’t face as big a threat as our current diagnosis suggests. However, facts show otherwise, and we’ve heard this thing before, as evidence by the NYT article.

Via Glenn Reynolds.