One of the recurring “head-to-head” poll trends in this election cycle has been McCain beating Clinton, but losing or tieing with Obama. The latest poll from the Gallup group, however, shows the exact opposite.

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on registered voters’ general election preferences for president finds that John McCain has opened up a slight advantage over Barack Obama, 47% to 44%, while McCain and Hillary Clinton remained tied at 46% each.

Those results are based on interviews with over 4,000 registered voters nationwide conducted March 11-15. This marks the first time since Gallup began reporting these general election results last week that McCain’s relative positioning against Obama and Clinton has not been exactly the same. McCain’s three percentage point advantage over Obama is not statistically significant, and it remains to be seen if the differentiation between the two Democratic candidates, when pitted against McCain, will continue in the days ahead.

Clinton hasn’t exactly come out smelling like roses, either. Her tie is only due to losing less ground than Obama, with both having started the week two points up on McCain. The poll shows that Clinton may, after all, be able to argue the “viability” angle.

Despite those results, however, Ed notes that Hillary isn’t doing very well with her party’s own electorate. While she leads Obama in a head-to-head with McCain, she trails Obama by 3 points amongst Democrats. Why? Here’s Ed’s theory:

It could be that fewer Democrats will defect if Hillary gets the nomination than will if Obama wins it. That may be another argument for Hillary with the superdelegates in Denver. Which candidate can hold more Democrats in the fold, even if not winning the majority of primary voters overall?

I’m not so sure hoping Hillary gets the nod is the best strategy for the GOP. Is she really our best shot in November? Obama’s been coming apart like a cheap suit as of late, the Rezko trial has just begun, he gives McCain the leg-up on experience, he’s been built up so that any bad news can be catastrophic, and the Messiah seems to cause more defections to Nader or Republican/third party than the Hildabeast. I can personally account for several Democrats voting third party if Obama’s the nominee.

That doesn’t necessarily mean GOP voters should stop crossing over. In fact, much of the goal of crossovers wasn’t so much to get Hillary a win, but to draw out the Democratic primary season. That strategy is important, as Obama will still likely get the Democratic nomination, but he will spend the next few months fighting his own party rather than McCain.