Well, Hello: McCain Leads Obama 54-44 Amongst Likely Voters

by Stephan Tawney on Sun, Sep 7, 2008

Still a few months out from election day, but there’s simply no excuse for a Republican to be leading his messianic opponent in an election year almost tailor-made for Democrats, much less by 10 points. Before Democrats begin attacking the credibility of likely voter samples, please do keep in mind that the left was touting its credibility when Obama was doing well with the sample not long ago. Also note that McCain leads Obama 50-46 amongst registered — a block Obama typically does better with.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican’s biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.

“The Republicans had a very successful convention and, at least initially, the selection of Sarah Palin has made a big difference,” says political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. “He’s in a far better position than his people imagined he would be in at this point.”…

McCain has narrowed Obama’s wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate’s top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he’s favored by 3.

How has McCain’s choice of Palin panned out? 29% now say they’re more likely to vote for him because of her being on the ticket, while 21% say they’re less likely. She has significantly narrowed the enthusiasm gap, has driven out Evangelicals to Team McCain’s side, and contributed significantly to the $47 million McCain took in in August. Overall, not a bad pick afterall.

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