Make of it what you will. How accurate the traditional likely voter model will be will depend on how successful Obama’s GOTV efforts are. The “expanded” model actually has The One up by 7. That apparently figures in people who tend not to vote actually voting this year.

I tend not to put too much faith in Gallup polls. Despite the company’s well-known brand, it’s hardly the most accurate. If we want a clearer picture of the state of the race, let’s look to Rasmussen or (seriously) Zogby. The former has McCain down 5, while the latter has it by 4. That’s pretty close to the most accurate pollster of 2004, IBD/TIPP.

Does that mean it’s over for McCain? Hardly. Many pollsters were calling the race for Kerry on the night before the election and look how that turned out. That’s without figuring in the possibility of a Bradley effect, an exaggerated ID advantage for Democrats, or Obama’s ability to actually get the notorious youth block out on November 4th.

Clearly it’s better to be in Obama’s position right now, but McCain still has a chance. If you’re a McCain/Palin voter, don’t let anything stop you from getting to the polls on election day (next Tuesday). If you have to crawl to the polling booth, do so. If you have relatives or neighbors who would vote for the ticket but can’t get there due to a lack of transportation, drive them or find someone who will. Offer your driving services (if you can) to your local veterans group. Spread the word about Obama’s tax plans, radical associations, et all to friends, family, and email lists. It’s not over, but it’s a tough climb.