Natanz would have to be altered to further refine the uranium before it could be used in a nuke, but we’re talking about a step that would take a few months at that point. As David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security, says, “If Iran did decide to build nuclear weapons, it’s entering an era in which it could do so quickly.”

For those a bit weary of American claims about nuclear programs, let your mind be at rest. This recent revelation comes in the form of a International Atomic Energy Agency — the UN’s official nuclear watchdog — report. Apparently the agency (and world) formerly underestimated Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. There’s a shock.

They said Iran had now accumulated more than one tonne of low enriched uranium hexafluoride at a facility in Natanz. If such a quantity were further enriched it could produce more than 20kg of fissile material – enough for a bomb.

“It appears that Iran has walked right up to the threshold of having enough low enriched uranium to provide enough raw material for a single bomb,” said Peter Zimmerman, a former chief scientist of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency

The new figures come in a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, released on Thursday.

This revealed that Iran’s production of low enriched uranium had previously been underestimated.

When the agency carried out an annual stocktaking of Natanz in mid-November Iran had produced 839 kg of low enriched uranium hexafluoride – more than 200kg more than previously thought.

Tehran then produced an additional 171 kg by the end of January.

The Financial Times points out that there’s currently no known facility to carry out the required further refining, though it concedes that Iran has kept its program secret for years. We can’t actually be sure that Iran hasn’t been thinking ahead on that mark.

By the way, the right-wing parties in Israel are rallying behind Benjamin Netanyahu to be the next Prime Minister. Those parties actually control more seats in the Knesset, so he’s got a pretty good chance of being able to form a government. Israel has for years warned that it won’t accept Iran getting the point of the last step before being in the possession of a nuclear weapon. What happens now?

Update: Allahpundit makes a good point about the caveats that inevitably come with these articles:

The only thing more predictable than a story every few weeks about Iran’s nuclear progress are the caveats that it’s not time to worry just yet. I guarantee that the very last news article written before the announcement that they’ve got the bomb will end with reassurances that it could be months or even years before the west has to act.

Very true. We’ll hear “Don’t panick! Don’t panick! Don’t panick!” until the breaking news story from the AP that Iran has a nuke. Then there will be a scramble and we’ll be notified that now is the time to be worried.

What are the odds the Obama Administration can make diplomatic headway with Tehran on stopping the program? Iran says that the nuclear matter is “closed”. They’re willing to talk about a change in U.S. policy that will, er, do nothing to stop their program, though.