Will Tomorrow Be Iran’s Tiananmen Square?; Update

I’m shamelessly stealing from Hot Air here, mostly because I had heard nothing about it until Allahpundit’s post. Normally a report from Debka would be considered about as trustworthy as a Keith Olbermann investigation into George Bush. However, other, more trustworthy sources both inside and outside of Iran are hearing the same thing.

First, Michael Ledeen:

It seems that tomorrow, Thursday, will be the first big showdown.  The regime is massing two Revolutionary Guards divisions for an assault on the dissidents–something like twenty thousand soldiers from outside Tehran–and the Mousavi people don’t want to give them time to organize and prepare their attacks.  No doubt there are all kinds of secret meetings going on, as the various military, militia, religious and political leaders try to read the chicken entrails and guess their destiny.

Then there’s  Tehran Bureau, a reliable source of information out of Iran since the election:

Clarification for plans for tomorrow: “Apparently, the plan is to create chaos and bloody confrontation between Basij and Karroubi and Mousavi demonstrators, in order to justify hard crack down and have Khamenei announce the end of “soft” confrontation in the Friday prayers.”…

From source: “I have now received e-mails from totally trustworthy sources within Iran that many Sepaah commanders [Sepaph is IRGC] have been arrested, because they are opposed to what is going on and in particular to the plan for tomorrow.

“This had been talked about for the past few days, but my source confirmed it.”

And now a Twitterer in Iran, an individual who has also been reliable since the election, is hearing about a similar plan.

So, is tomorrow Iran’s Tiananmen Square? There’s no confirmation, but signs seem to point to something big happening.

Update: Well, something is definitely about to happen. Khamenei is issuing an ultimatum to Mousavi:

The moderate Iranian leader who says that he was robbed of victory in last week’s presidential election faces a fateful choice today: support the regime or be cast out.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has told Mir Hossein Mousavi to stand beside him as he uses Friday prayers at Tehran University to call for national unity. An army of Basiji — Islamic volunteer militiamen — is also expected to be bussed in to support the Supreme Leader.

The demand was made at a meeting this week with representatives of all three candidates who claim that the poll was rigged, and it puts Mr Mousavi on the spot…

It was unclear last night what he would do or even whether the protests would die away if he backed down.


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