An inherit problem comes along with passing new, unpopular entitlement programs that don’t kick-in for years: It gives your opposition time to organize, retake the government, and repeal the legislation.
Even if ObamaCare with its insurance mandate provisions and possibly unconstitutional passage were to withstand legal challenges, benefits don’t take effect until 2014. That’s two Congressional elections and one presidential election away.
Republicans could, theoretically and realistically, take back power of the legislature and executive branches and just repeal government-run health care. Even if they don’t want to go on a full offensive against the legislation as a whole, GOP legislation would be able to chip away the most unpopular and dangerous provisions. Death by a thousand cuts, in other words. Nothing more than shell legislation would be left.
Democrats, meanwhile, would be unable to claim that Republicans are taking away benefits. The GOP can realistically take over the Congress and White House, repeal ObamaCare, and pass their own health care reform all before benefits take effect.
2010: Mid-terms. Republicans will make significant gains.
2012: Congressional and presidential elections. Republicans can pick-up White House and maintain majority.
2013: A Republican Congress passes, and a Republican president signs, legislation that chips away or alters government-run health care. For good measure, both branches approve real health care reform.
2014: The now-dead ObamaCare legislation is scheduled to kick-in.
And again, that’s all only necessary to plot if the legislation withstands challenges in the court system. Will Justice Anthony Kennedy side with liberals in determining that the federal government can force Americans, under penalty of imprisonment, to purchase health insurance? Unlikely.
Which isn’t to say I’ve give up on this weekend’s vote. Enough Democrats could actually grow a spine, fear the wrath of their constituents, and decide to do the right thing by opposing this legislation. But I think it’s important to note that passage wouldn’t be the end of this fight.
It would be nothing more than the beginning.
by Stephan Tawney on Fri, Mar 19, 2010 at 12:51 am