Who will win the Republican nomination for governor in Florida? Your guess is as good as mine. Polls have Bill McCollum, the Attorney General, and Rick Scott, the wealthy hospital executive, racing to a photo finish.

Scott does better with conservatives and younger voters. McCollum does better with senior citizens — an extremely reliable voting block in Florida — and minority Republicans. The racial and age composition of the turn-out will determine the winner.

Prospects for the General Election

Alex Sink, the likely liberal Democratic nominee for governor, has a real chance of taking the governor’s mansion for Democrats. This is a gubernatorial election Republicans actually risk losing in this anti-Democratic midterm.

Rick Scott is tainted thanks to a Medicare scandal involving his former employer during his time at the company. McCollum is better suited for the fight ahead, though his reputation has been partially damaged with conservative voters.

Don’t get be wrong; Republicans can still win this thing. It’s just a more difficult race than others they’re facing coming into November.