Florida Primary for United States Senate — Republican

Former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives Marco Rubio is headed towards an easy victory in the Florida Republican primary for United States Senate this evening. There’s simply no change of an upset in that race this evening.

The Cuban-American conservative was all but guaranteed the nomination after Florida Governor Charlie Crist dropped out of the race and registered as an Independent despite explicit promises to endorse the eventual GOP nominee.

Florida Primary for United States Senate  — Democrat

Barring a major upset, Representative Kendrick Meek (D-FL) will defeat billionaire candidate Jeff Greene in the race for the Democratic nomination for United States Senate in Florida.

Polls have Meek up by double-digits and Greene, who made his fortune in the real estate market before the crash, has been embroiled in controversy as of late. Meek carries a plurality or majority of white, black, liberal, moderate, and conservative Democrats.

All of which counts as good news for Marco Rubio and Florida Republicans. With Jeff Greene as the nominee, Charlie Crist pulls more Democrats than the party’s own candidate. That presents a clear path to victory for Crist. With Meek as the nominee, Crist loses many more Democratic votes and his path to victory becomes much, much more difficult.

Prospect for the General Election

Let’s be clear: Barring unforeseen circumstances like a major scandal or candidate drop-out, the race is between Marco Rubio for the Republicans and Charlie Crist for himself. This is not a seat that will be captured outright by Democrats, though Crist is likely to caucus with Senate Democrats so they’ll have a pretty reliable vote.

Again, either Marco Rubio or Charlie Crist will capture the seat. The determining factor will be how many Democrats break for their own party’s nominee over the flip-flopping Charlie Crist.