Lisa Murkowski has lost the Republican Party’s nomination and won’t be allowed to replace the Libertarian Party’s nominee on the ballot. That leaves her with just one choice: A write-in campaign. And indeed, the sore loser has announced her decision to pursue that sore loser route.

So what are her chances of success? If history is any indication, she’s likely to lose.

Democratic Sen. Ernest Gruening tried to reclaim his seat in 1968 with a write-in campaign after narrowly losing the primary to Mike Gravel, but he ended up taking third place in the general election with 17 percent of the vote. Walter Hickel tried a write-in ticket to become Alaska governor in 1978 but finished second to Jay Hammond at 26 percent.

Most recently, Robin Taylor tried an unsuccessful write-in bid in 1998 after the Alaska Republican Party withdrew its support from the primary winner, John Lindauer. Taylor claimed second place with about 18 percent of the votes but still lost badly to Democratic Gov. Tony Knowles.

Why is it so difficult to prevail through a write-in campaign? It’s more difficult to vote for a write-in candidate than simply push the button or punch the hole for one of the nominees.

Not only will Murkowski have to win over Alaskans during the next six weeks to overcome that history, she’ll also have to teach many how to successfully fill out a write-in ballot.

Alaska Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai stated in an e-mail that voters will need to fill out Murkowski’s name on the ballot, then fill in the oval next to it. Alaska statute doesn’t allow stickers with candidate names, a practice that has boosted write-in efforts in other states.

Voters don’t necessarily have to spell Murkowski’s name correctly to have their votes count, but a statement by Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell on Wednesday said that a first name and initial won’t be enough. Campbell, who oversees the Division of Elections, said the Department of Law will be consulted when there are questions about interpretation of state statutes.

Now, Murkowski has little chance of winning. But 17 or 18 percent remains a significant portion of the vote. Murkowski might not be able to win but she can draw enough votes away from Republican nominee Joe Miller to hand victory to the Democratic nominee (whatever his name is).

And I suspect that’s Murkowsi’s intention. I don’t think she expects to win to the seat, but rather to deny the seat to the party that bucked her. She’s a spoiled brat whose father literally handed her the seat to begin with (her father, who was governor, appointed her).

So she’s throwing a temper tantrum, insisting that if she can’t have the seat that no Republican will. For Murkowski, it’s not about ideology but rather power. She’s not concerned with a conservative or even Republican holding the seat. She’s concerned with herself holding the seat. If she can’t, she’ll spite those who have denied it to her.