The United States Senate race in West Virginia is competitive, according to a new poll from Public Policy Polling. The poll finds Republican nominee John Raese leading his Democratic counterpart, Joe Manchin, by a margin of 46-43%.

That’s significantly closer than many had predicted. Manchin, the sitting governor of West Virginia, is relatively popular, and many had expected him to walk away with the seat.

But the unpopularity of his party in 2010 has apparently impacted his chances. In fact, 64% of West Virginians disapprove of the job Barack Obama has done, while just 30% approve. Just 51% of Democrats approve of Obama’s job performance. In the words of PPP:

Support from Republicans (91% disapproval) and independents (73% disapproval) is pretty much nonexistent.

54% of voters want Republicans to control the next Congress while just 37% want Democrats to maintain control. More importantly, 66% of Independents and 25% of Democrats want Republicans in charge. Just 21% of Indies want to see Nancy Pelosi as Speaker next year.

And here’s the key to Raese’s success:

Despite Manchin’s 42% approval rating with Republicans he’s getting only 14% of their votes. And in spite of a +8 approval spread with independents, he trails Raese 56-30 with them. Raese also leads 47-41 with another key group- the Democrats that disapprove of Obama.

All of that combines to create a competitive race in a usually non-competitive state. Manchin may regain ground, especially if disapproval of his party falls before November. But for now, Republicans have the lead in the West Virginia Senate race.