New polls show Republican gubernatorial candidates taking the lead in two competitive states: Florida and Connecticut.

First, Tom Foley (R) leads Dan Malloy (D) by a margin of 49-47% in Connecticut.

A look inside the numbers makes it clear that attacks on Malloy, rather than an increase in voter affection toward Foley, are what has made this race so competitive in the final days. A month ago Foley’s favorability rating was 41/40 and now it’s almost identical at 41/38. Voters aren’t really warming up to him. But Malloy’s numbers have seen a precipitous drop. At the beginning of the month he posted a stellar 50/29 favorability spread and that’s gone all the way down now to 39/40, a 22 point decline on the margin in just four weeks time.

Foley has built a dominant lead with independent voters at 58-33, even as they simultaneously split almost even with their Senate votes. A lot of indys in Connecticut are clearly planning to vote a Blumenthal/Foley ticket. Foley’s also seen a large increase in his crossover support, now taking 20% of Democrats compared to only 12% a month ago.

Voters in the Nutmeg State could end up sending a Republican to the governor’s mansion and Democrat to the United States Senate. They should send Republican candidates to both, of course, but we’ll take what we can get. The state is currently represented by a Republican, Jodi Rell, so this would be a hold.

Now to Florida, where Rick Scott (R) has taken a five-point lead over cheater Alex Sink (D), 44-39%. Eleven percent of likely voters remain undecided. Six percent are voting for third-party candidates. Maybe voters are starting to realize that Sink, an ideological clone of Nancy Pelosi, can’t be trusted to lead the Sunshine State in the middle of a recession.