Let’s put this in context: Alaska has only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate once — in 1964. The state went to McCain 59-37 in 2008 and went to Bush 61-35 in 2004. And while the state has one Democratic senator, he only came to office thanks to a significant scandal involving the previous incumbent. This is a pretty solid Republican state.

And yet…

If the presidential election were held tomorrow and Alaskans had a choice between Barack Obama and Sarah Palin, guess who would win? A poll released Tuesday by Anchorage’s Hays Research Group says it probably wouldn’t be Mamma Grizzly.

Hays polled 500 “likely” Alaska voters last Tuesday and Wednesday, and found that Obama would edge out Palin by up to 9 percentage points in a hypothetical matchup — if Obama was the Democratic candidate and if Republicans nominated Alaska’s former governor.

The results would have Obama taking 42% and Palin winning 36%. A surprising 7% would support another candidate.

Palin’s hypothetical loss is outside of the margin-of-error.