North Carolina is a state with a Democratic governor, Democratic senator, House delegation composed of a Democratic majority, and that voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

So it’s a bit surprising that Texas Governor Rick Perry (R), who hasn’t even declared his candidacy yet, would beat Obama by three points if the election were held today. And yet that’s the finding of a new poll.

Texas Republican Gov. Rick Perry leads Barack Obama 45 percent to 42 percent among North Carolina voters in a potential presidential matchup, according to a new poll released by the Civitas Institute.

Forty-five percent of voters said they are leaning towards or would vote for Gov. Rick Perry if the election for President of the United States was being held today and the candidates were Perry, the Republican, and Barack Obama, the Democrat. Forty-two percent said they are leaning towards or would vote for Obama, and 9 percent said they are undecided.

“For the President to be trailing an unannounced candidate in a state he barely won in 2012 has to be concerning for the Obama team,” said Civitas Institute President Francis De Luca. “If Obama is hoping to catch lightning again and win North Carolina, he is going to have to hope for a weaker opponent than Gov. Perry or a big bounce from having the Democratic National Convention here next year.”

Worse yet (for Obama), the poll is of registered — not likely — voters. The registered voter sampling usually helps Obama’s party. Likely voters tend to be more Republican-leaning.

And there’s more! The poll gives Democrats a huge voter advantage — 14%. That’s higher than Democrats enjoyed in 2008, which was their best year in a very long time. Democrats are unlikely to enjoy such a high advantage in 2012.

North Carolina has 15 electoral votes. Obama seems poised to lose them — and perhaps his reelection campaign. If Rick Perry runs, that is.