If Obama loses Michigan in 2012, he loses the presidency. Period. End of story. He simply can’t win reelection if even the voters of Michigan are looking for a change. Michigan hasn’t voted for a Republican since 1988 — 23 years ago. He loses there, he’s done.

And yet…

The poll showed 46% of likely voters either supporting or leaning toward supporting Romney, compared to 42% supporting or leaning toward supporting Obama, with 12% undecided. Romney is considered to be the presumptive frontrunner among the large field of Republicans running for the nomination to face the Democrat, Obama, next year.

The poll was commissioned by a Democratic polling firm. So it’s possible the results are even worse for Obama.

Also: Romney ties Obama in Pennsylvania — typically a blue state. Obama losing Pennsylvania and Michigan? It’d be a wipeout.

But: Keep in mind that these results only hold if Romney is the nominee. You shouldn’t take from this the idea that any Republican candidate would beat Obama by four in Michigan. It’s simply not the case. Certain voters who would back Romney may not back, say, Palin or Pawlenty. The individual candidate matters.