Despite confidence that Washington will reach a deal on the debt limit just in time, analysts now expect the United States to lose its top-notch credit rating. In fact, one analyst says a downgrade is, “now more likely than not”.

And while just 5% expect the United States will default on its debt, a majority of economists polled by Reuters expect a ratings downgrade. That suggests a downgrade is likely to happen regardless of a debt ceiling increase.

Another analyst interviewed by Reuters says the debt ceiling debate isn’t helping, but apparently the high unemployment and weak economy are the biggest contributors to investor fears.