National Journal takes a look at battleground state polls and finds big trouble for the Obama reelection effort. In fact, he trails the Republican frontrunner in most competitive states — including both Ohio and Michigan.

How vulnerable is he right now? National Journal introduces the term “GOP landslide” into the discussion.

In every reputable battleground state poll conducted over the past month, Obama’s support is weak. In most of them, he trails Republican front-runner Mitt Romney. For all the talk of a closely fought 2012 election, if Obama can’t turn around his fortunes in states such as Michigan and New Hampshire, next year’s presidential election could end up being a GOP landslide.

It’s simply a matter of math.

Barack Obama enjoyed a 114-electoral vote margin of error in 2008. He carried states like Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

Michigan has 16 electoral votes. Virginia has 13. North Carolina has 15. Ohio has 20. Florida has 29. Iowa has 6. New Hampshire has 4. Indiana has 11. Those states, or a similar combination, would have shifted the victory to McCain.

Obama is extremely unlikely to re-win Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, or Iowa. He’s extremely vulnerable in Ohio and Florida. The flipping  of a state like Michigan or Pennsylvania would seal the deal for his defeat.

Does this guarantee a Republican victory? Of course not. But the GOP’s chances significantly improve if numbers like these hold:

Take Ohio, a perennial battleground in which Obama has campaigned more than in any other state (outside of the D.C. metropolitan region). Fifty percent of Ohio voters now disapprove of his job performance, compared with 46 percent who approve, according to a Quinnipiac pollconducted from July 12-18.

Among Buckeye State independents, only 40 percent believe that Obama should be reelected, and 42 percent approve of his job performance. Against Romney, Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent—well below the 50 percent comfort zone for an incumbent.

The news gets worse from there. In Michigan, a reliably Democratic state that Obama carried with 57 percent of the vote, an EPIC-MRA pollconducted July 9-11 finds him trailing Romney, 46 percent to 42 percent. Only 39 percent of respondents grade his job performance as “excellent” or good,” with 60 percent saying it is “fair” or “poor.” The state has an unemployment rate well above the national average, and the president’s approval has suffered as a result.

Obama also loses to the Republican frontrunner in New Hampshire. Another four electoral votes.

Ed Morrissey looks at our opportunity:

By flipping Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, and Wisconsin, Republicans edge Obama 295-243. Swapping Florida for North Carolina still produces a 281-257 win for Republicans. Winning Michigan and conceding Colorado makes it 288-250 Republicans.

Best news Republicans have had in months.

How do we win? Keep applying pressure. Keep (rightly) assigning blame to Obama for the weak economy and high unemployment numbers. Keep it up and don’t back down.