I’ve been asked why I place little-to-no interest in the Ames Straw Poll.

Simple: It tells us very little about the eventual nominee. It’s just another way to appease Iowans who are insulted by the very suggestion they’re not the single most important voters in the universe.

A summary of winners from 1979 to today. Keep in mind each year was the year before the presidential election. So the ’79 poll was for the ’80 election.

• 1979 – Winner: George H.W. Bush — Nominee: Ronald Reagan
• 1987 – Winner: Pat Robertson — Nominee: George H.W. Bush
• 1995 – Winner: Tied between Phil Gramm and Bob Dole — Nominee: Bob Dole
• 1999 – Winner: George W. Bush — Nominee: George W. Bush
• 2007 – Winner: Mitt Romney — Nominee: John McCain

In five elections, Ames has been right or partially right twice. So the poll has a 40% success rate in the past 32 years. And one of those “accurate” readings involved a tie between the eventual nominee and a guy who faded away.

Looking deeper into the results by the year (starting in 1987, as I’m still looking for detailed data on 1979).

1987 – Eventual Nominee: George Bush

• First Place: Pat Robertson
• Second Place: Bob Dole
• Third Place: George Bush

1995 – Eventual Nominee: Bob Dole

• First Place: Phil Gramm & Bob Dole
• Second Place: Pat Buchanan
• Third Place: Lamar Alexander

1999 – Eventual Nominee: George W. Bush

• First Place: George W. Bush
• Second Place: Steve Forbes
• Third Place: Elizabeth Dole

2007 – Eventual Nominee: John McCain

• First Place: Mitt Romney
• Second Place: Mike Huckabee
• Third Place: Sam Brownback

Looking at the last poll — 2007 — eventual nominee John McCain secured just .7% of the vote. He came in eleventh place. Candidates like Duncan Hunter, Tommy Thompson, and Ron Paul did far better. Heck, Tom Tancredo came in fourth place.

So this is why I’m not salivating over the Ames Straw Poll. Forty percent success rate and the most recent was a disaster.

Besides, Iowa is historically a blue state. They voted for Bush in 2004, true, but the previous GOP nominee they supported was Reagan in 1984. The state voted for Dukakis in 1988. Not exactly a reading of the nation’s temperature.