How do you, a Democrat running for reelection, know you’re in trouble? When your approval rating is underwater in New York. Holy smokes…

The poll is from Quinnipiac University, so it’s legitimate. And it’s a pretty good sample: 1,640 voters. This should be an easy get for Obama. But nope:

New York State voters disapprove 49 – 45 percent of the job President Obama is doing, a huge drop from his 57 – 38 percent approval June 29 and the first time the president ever has had a negative score in New York, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Nearly 20% of Democrats disapprove of his job performance. 58% of Independents and 86% of Republicans disapprove as well.

And there’s more: Just 48% say he deserves reelection. 46% are looking for a new president. And this is New York. Bluest of the blue states.