One more reminder before candidates and their hacks begin spinning the results of today’s straw poll in Iowa.

The Ames Straw Poll is notoriously inaccurate at picking the eventual nominee. All it takes to win is for a candidate to bus-in his or her supporters to a greater extent than their rivals. Which is probably how we wound up with George H.W. Bush winning the poll in 1979, Pat Robertson winning in 1987, Phil Gramm tying Dole in 1996, and Mitt Romney taking home the gold in 2007.

Overall, we’re talking about a 40% accuracy rate since 1979. Not very impressive.

Just something to remember as we watch the returns. The eventual winner isn’t necessary the most popular or even a viable candidate on a national or even state level. The winner is just the guy (or gal) who managed to bring the most supporters to the rodeo. Which produces regularly inaccurate results.