Republicans are on the verge of a major upset in Tuesday’s special election for New York’s 9th congressional district, the seat previously held by the now-disgraced Anthony Weiner (D).

The Republican nominee, Bob Turner, leads Democratic nominee (and relentless imbecile) David Weprin by a margin of 47-41. The socialist candidate in the race, Christopher Hoeppner, takes 4% of the vote. 7% of voters are undecided.

The Message

New York ninth’s special election has turned into a referendum on the White House. Barack Obama’s approval rating is underwater in the blue district, and many Democrats are viewing this election as an opportunity to send a message to the White House: Change course now.

Turner (remember, the Republican) has received support from the usually-lefty newspaper New York Daily News, former Democratic mayor Ed Koch, and influential Democratic assemblyman Dov Hikind.

Hikind, who hails from the same district as Weprin, was quoted as saying that the election would, “send a message to President Obama about his failed, disastrous economic policies and his reckless policies toward Israel.”

That’s a Democratic assemblyman from a blue district in New York City, folks. That must sting.

Obama’s Approval

Weighing heavily against Weprin is his affiliation with Barack Obama. Despite the ninth being a blue district in New York City, the president’s approval rating is just 31%. A surprising 56% of voters in the district disapprove of the job Obama is doing.

In fact, just 16% of Independents and 46% of Democrats in New York’s ninth approve. If the presidential election were held today, Mitt Romney would carry the district by four points. Rick Perry would be statistically tied. In a blue district in New York City.

The Issue of Israel

Voters in New York’s ninth are also tired of the Obama Administration’s anti-Israeli policies. A plurality say the issue is weighing on their decision, and those individuals are supporting Turner (the Republican) by a whopping 71-22 margin. This is a major losing issue for both Weprin and Obama.