No.
First of all, the only evidence of a reconsideration is the claim by a radio personality that someone said she was reconsidering. That’s wafer-thin credibility at best.
But even if she was reconsidering, why would she jump in now? Besides the fact she would still face the awful polling data that originally lead her away from a run, what would her campaign strategy be?
She’s too late for the ballots in New Hampshire, Florida, and South Carolina — all of which are states crucial to victory in the primary. What’s the plan, make a play for Iowa and then sit back as other the other candidates pick up delegates in three of the most important states?
“How about a write-in?”
That almost never works, and when it does — as in Alaska with Murkowski — it’s because the person has been trusted by voters for some time in the office. And even with Murkowski, she had to get judges appointed by her daddy to rig the ballot system in her favor.
In a matter of weeks Palin would have to mount a political and fundraising operation capable of fueling a serious presidential campaign, fighting for territory in Iowa, and either overcoming a lack of delegates from those three states or running a write-in drive to push her to victory. All while a majority of Republicans, much less Independents, don’t want her to run.
While the media made her out to be stupid, Palin isn’t. She knew her decision would be final when she decided against running. She lives what she has going on in her life right now. Which is great. But we shouldn’t engage in baseless and absurd speculation.
2. November 2011 at 8:09 pm
New Hampshire, Florida, and South Carolina … Only 3 states … FL lost 1/2 of its delegates … Let’s wait & see … I ready to support her if she runs …
2. November 2011 at 8:11 pm
The source knows a person from Wasilsa who has direct contact to Palins camp.
2. November 2011 at 8:36 pm
The number of delegates the state has is irrelevant, which is why the state was willing to lose them.
The attention and perception of momentum a candidate gains is far more powerful than the eventual number of delegates the individual state delivers.
Look at 2008. McCain won New Hampshire, Florida, and South Carolina.
Look back at 2000. Bush won South Carolina and Florida, and picked up 6 delegates (compared to McCain’s 8 ) in New Hampshire.
The last two Republican nominees have won only after securing a majority or all of the three states. Why? Perception of momentum and viability, which is why voters chose McCain over, say, Romney or Huckabee.
Palin, on the other hand, won’t even be on the ballot in any of those three states. And she’d only have a few weeks to get a ground game in Iowa. Not gonna happen.
2. November 2011 at 9:22 pm
again, this is just a rumor … I hope she runs … Palin can overcome the traditional next man in line GOP … Romney back in 2008 was close enough to mcCain to challenge him till convention … he did not … IMHO 2 reasons … McCain was next in line & more to the point … Romney correctly figured out that after 2 Bush/Republican terms … country would look for different choice … meaning not GOP … enter Obama … Young, fresh … race factor palyed in his factor … Only thing that saved GOP from having dems win a 275-300 Rep house was Palin