The last poll scheduled to be released prior to the Iowa caucus on January 3rd has Mitt Romney leading his closest contender, Ron Paul, by a margin of 24-22. Rick Santorum comes in third at 15 percent.

Newt Gingrich comes in fourth at 12 percent. He’s followed by Rick Perry at 11 points and Michele Bachmann at 7 points. So we can now effectively count all of them out from a win in Iowa.

Which isn’t to say Mitt Romney will carry the state. In fact, polling from the last two day of the survey had Santorum surging. Romney still led but Santorum was clearly making a dent in Ron Paul’s support. Paul dropped to 18 percent.

How reliable is the final poll from the Des Moines Register? The survey actually has a pretty accurate history all things considered.

My projection: Santorum pulls out a win like Mike Huckabee did in 2008. Mitt Romney or Ron Paul come in second; probably Romney. In third…whoever didn’t come in second. Santorum can’t win the nomination, so Iowa becomes a wash.