Mitt Romney can’t run for the Republican nomination as a reliable conservative. Not believably, anyway. And he knows that. So his main argument so far has been inevitability when it comes to the Republican nomination and electability when it comes to the general election.

Let’s put that argument into perspective.

Inevitability

There have been 9 states that have held their caucuses or primaries as of this post. Romney has won four of them. Rick Santorum has won the same amount while Gingrich has carried one.

Maine, one of the states Romney ostensibly won, is undergoing criticism for its procedures and may have to change the results. Several towns flat-out didn’t get their results included in the tally. Romney beat Paul by just 194 votes in the state.

Meanwhile, polls show him lagging behind Santorum in Michigan — Romney’s home state and where his family name has carried weight for decades. One recent poll has him trailing the Pennsylvanian Santorum by 15 points.

In the delegate race, Romney has just 98 delegates. Santorum has 44, Gingrich has 32, and Paul has 20. How many delegates are needed to win? 1,144.  Romney has just 1,046 more delegates to obtain. Out of an original 1,144. Nowhere near done.

Electability

Just 37% of Independents hold a favorable view of Romney. 40% hold unfavorable views. For Santorum, it’s 35% favorable and just 32% unfavorable. Santorum, who was an also-ran a few weeks ago, now performs almost exactly the same on favorables and better on unfavorables.

In a head-to-head matchup, Obama now leads Romney 49-42. The same poll has Obama leading Santorum 49-44. Santorum actually performs 2 percentage points better than Romney in a hypothetical matchup.

Conclusion

Romney has no advantage in states won, holds less than 100 delegates, has higher unfavorable ratings than his closest contender, and actually fares worse in a hypothetical general election than a guy who was being pressured to drop out last month.

His money and infrastructure is a benefit on face, but it still hasn’t won him any more states than Santorum, who had just enough money and resources to travel around Iowa by himself in a truck.

The money and infrastructure surplus Romney enjoys would disappear in the general election against Obama, who will be better funded and almost certainly better organized.

Boston, we have a problem.